Ensemble level upscaling for compositional flow simulation

Abstract

Uncertainty quantification is typically accomplished by simulating multiple geological realizations, which can be very expensive computationally if the flow process is complicated and the models are highly resolved. Upscaling procedures can be applied to reduce computational demands, though it is essential that the resulting coarse-model predictions correspond to reference fine-scale solutions. In this work, we develop an ensemble level upscaling (EnLU) procedure for compositional systems, which enables the efficient generation of multiple coarse models for use in uncertainty quantification. We apply a newly developed global compositional upscaling method to provide coarse-scale parameters and functions for selected realizations. This global upscaling entails transmissibility and relative permeability upscaling, along with the computation of a-factors to capture component fluxes. Additional features include near-well upscaling for all coarse parameters and functions, and iteration on the a-factors, which is shown to improve accuracy. In the EnLU framework, this global upscaling is applied for only a few selected realizations. For 90 % or more of the realizations, upscaled functions are assigned statistically based on quickly computed flow and permeability attributes. A sequential Gaussian co-simulation procedure is incorporated to provide coarse models that honor the spatial correlation structure of the upscaled properties. The resulting EnLU procedure is applied for multiple realizations of two-dimensional models, for both Gaussian and channelized permeability fields. Results demonstrate that EnLU provides P10, P50, and P90 results for phase and component production rates that are in close agreement with reference fine-scale results. Less accuracy is observed in realization-by-realization comparisons, though the models are still much more accurate than those generated using standard coarsening procedures.