What will it take to get to Net-Zero Emissions in California?

Abstract

In this work, a new modeling tool called DECAL is developed and used to evaluate what it will take to reach California's new climate goal of net-zero emissions by 2045. DECAL is a scenario-based model that projects emissions, society-wide costs, and resource consumption in response to user-defined inputs.DECAL was built with the requisite level of detail needed to model true net-zero pathways. DECAL was first used to replicate the California Air Resources Board's (CARB's) 2022 Scoping Plan scenarios, both to demonstrate efficacy of the new tool, and so that additional net-zero pathways could be compared to CARB's plan. We find that the state can get nearly halfway to its net-zero target with technologies that are already commercially available, but the scale of infrastructure buildout and rate of sales turnover that will be needed still presents an enormous challenge. Furthermore, several technologies that are currently at pilot or research scale will need to be developed and widely deployed, including zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles, carbon capture & sequestration for industrial applications, clean industrial heating, low global warming potential refrigerants, and direct air capture. This work also emphasizes other practical considerations, such as lag-time for turning over the existing stock of vehicles and building appliances, as well as bioenergy feedstock constraints. The analyses demonstrate the unforgiving nature of reaching net-zero emissions, which will require all emission sources in the economy to be accounted for, including hard-to-abate sectors such asIndustry, Agriculture, and Non-Energy. For these reasons, it is likely the state will need significant carbon dioxide removal (e.g., direct air capture, bioenergy with carbon capture) to meet its net-zero goal by 2045.

What will it take to get to Net-Zero Emissions in California?